Pre-production Papers

We study competition for the market in a setting where incumbents (and, to a lesser extent, neighbouring incumbents) benefit from a cost or information advantage. We first compare the outcome of staggered and synchronous tenders, before drawing the implications for market design. We find the timing of tenders interrelates with the likelihood of monopolisation.

This paper offers a novel illustration of the political economy of religion by examining the impact of religious elites on development. We compile a unique database on holy Muslim shrines across Pakistani Punjab and construct a historical panel of literacy spanning over a century (1901-2011). Using the 1977 military take-over as a universal shock that gave control over public goods to politicians, our difference-in-differences analysis shows that areas with a greater concentration of shrines experienced a substantially retarded growth in literacy after the coup. Our results suggest that the increase in average literacy rate would have been higher by 13% in the post-coup period in the absence of shrine influence.

We quantitatively evaluate a model of insurance with limited commitment where the requirement that contracts be immune to deviations by subcoalitions makes group size endogenous, as proposed by Genicot and Ray (2003). We compare the model’s predictions to panel data from rural Indian villages.

In this paper, we mobilize newly available historical series from the World Inequality Database to construct world income distribution estimates from 1820 to 2020. We find that the level of global income inequality has always been very large, reflecting the persistence of a highly hierarchical world economic system. Global inequality increased between 1820 and 1910, in the context of the rise of Western dominance and colonial empires, and then stabilized at a very high level between 1910 and 2020.

We use detailed administrative data to study the adjustment of local labor markets to industrial robots in Germany. Robot exposure, as predicted by a shift-share variable, is associated with displacement effects in manufacturing, but those are fully offset by new jobs in services.

This paper evaluates the effect on crime of creating a fundamental modern-day institution: centralized professional police forces tasked with preventing crime. We study the 1829 formation of the London Metropolitan Police – the first professional force worldwide.

Alfred Marshall and Mary Paley Marshall are often described as the first academic economist couple. Both studied at Cambridge University, where Paley became one of the first women to take the Tripos exam and the first female lecturer in economics, with Marshall’s encouragement. But in later life, Marshall opposed granting Cambridge degrees to women and their participation in academic economics. This paper recounts Alfred Marshall’s use of gender norms, born out of a separate spheres ideology, to promote and ingrain women’s exclusion in academic economics and beyond. We demonstrate the persistence of this ideology and resultant norms, drawing parallels between gendered inequities in labor market outcomes for Cambridge graduates in the UK post-Industrial Revolution and those apparent in cross-country data today.