Pre-production Papers

The following papers, listed alphabetically by the first author's last name, have been accepted for publication in JEEA, and can be downloaded in in the EEA membership log in area. 

Downside and Upside Uncertainty Shocks

Mario Forni, 
Luca Gambetti
, Luca Sala

An increase in uncertainty is not contractionary per se. What is contractionary is a widening of the left tail of the GDP growth forecast distribution, the downside uncertainty. On the contrary, an increase of the right tail, the upside uncertainty, is mildly expansionary.

Immigration and Business Dynamics: Evidence from U.S. Firms

Parag Mahajan

This paper studies the impact of immigration on U.S. local business dynamics using a comprehensive collection of survey and administrative data. It finds heterogeneous impacts across the employer productivity distribution that favor higher-productivity firms and lead to increases in average local earnings.

Political Power, Elite Control, and Long-Run Development: Evidence from Brazil

Claudio Ferraz, Frederico Finan, Monica Martinez-Bravo

This paper analyzes how changes in the concentration of political power affect long-run development. We study Brazil’s military dictatorship whose rise to power dramatically altered the distribution of power of local political elites. We document that municipalities that were more politically concentrated prior to the dictatorship in the 1960s are relatively richer in 2000, despite being poorer initially.

Risk Gravity

Luciana Juvenal, Paulo Santos Monteiro

We consider the canonical trade model with heterogeneous firms, love for variety and trade costs, and integrate it in the consumption CAPM model. This yields a structural gravity equation that includes an additional factor related to risk premia. Empirical evidence based on firm-level data confirms the importance of cross-sectional heterogeneity in risk and time-varying risk premia to shape bilateral trade flows.

Smart Cap

Larry Karp
, Christian Traeger

Policymakers’ imperfect knowledge about firms’ abatement costs leads to inefficient regulation, reducing the welfare gains from carbon markets around the world. We introduce a “smart” cap and trade system that eliminates these costs. This cap responds endogenously to technology or macroeconomic shocks, relying on the market price of certificates to aggregate information.

Strategic Fertility, Education Choices, and Conflicts in Deeply Divided Societies

Emeline Bezin
, Bastien Chabé-Ferret
, David de la Croix

Fertility becomes a strategic choice for minorities when having a larger share of the population helps to increase power. If parents invest resources to educate their children, raising fertility for strategic reasons might be at the cost of future human capital. We dispel this view using census data from several developing countries. We show that religious and ethnic minorities in Indonesia, China and Malaysia tend to invest more in both education and fertility compared to larger groups.

The Effectiveness of Environmental Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements

Ryan Abman, 
Clark Lundberg, 
Michele Ruta

Trade liberalization can spur environmental degradation. Concerns over these adverse impacts have led to a debate over the need for environmental provisions in regional trade agreements (RTAs), however the effectiveness of such provisions is unknown. In this paper, we provide new plausibly causal evidence that environmental provisions are effective in limiting deforestation following the entry into force of RTAs.

The Impact of NGO-Provided Aid on Government Capacity: Evidence from Uganda

Erika Deserrano, Aisha Nansamba, Nancy Qian

This paper investigates whether NGO-provided basic healthcare crowds out or crowds in similar services provided by the government in rural Uganda. We find that NGO entry reduces the number of government workers, which leads to a reduction in government-provided health services.

The Macroeconomic Effects of EU Regional Structural Funds

Fabio Canova

I examine the macroeconomic effects of two EU regional structural funds. The European regional development fund (ERDF) has positive short term average consequences, but gains typically dissipate within three years. The European Social Fund (ESF) has insignificant average short term effects, but the medium term effect is positive and economically important.

Welfare Analysis of Regulations on Media Platform Advertising

Jiekai Zhang

This paper estimates the welfare effects of TV advertising regulation. I develop a structural model of demand and supply in which both the broadcast content and the amount of advertising are endogenously determined. My results suggest that more varied content, and, in particular, more educational content, can be offered in a laissez-faire equilibrium.